The conflict in northern Syria has sharply escalated, with Syrian and Russian forces intensifying airstrikes in response to a sudden and extensive offensive by opposition forces. The offensive, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and elements of the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), has resulted in significant territorial gains, including the loss of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, to rebel control. This marks a dramatic turning point in Syria’s protracted civil war, which has seen relatively stable front lines since 2020.
The HTS-led coalition launched its offensive last week, capturing vast areas in Aleppo and Idlib provinces and dealing a significant blow to Syrian government forces. HTS, originally established in 2011 as Jabhat al-Nusra, an Al-Qaeda affiliate, reportedly severed ties with the global jihadist network in 2016 under its leader Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani. The group rebranded as HTS in 2017 after merging with several smaller Islamist factions.
The SNA, another key player in the offensive, is backed and funded by Turkey. While nominally aligned with HTS during the current offensive, SNA has a history of operational independence and, at times, tension with the Islamist group. The SNA’s strategic aim often focuses on weakening Kurdish forces and securing Turkish influence in northern Syria.
The rebels have made rapid progress, seizing Aleppo’s airport and Kweyris military airbase, as well as critical areas in Idlib and rural Hama. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reports that the Syrian army has retreated from Aleppo to fortify defenses in nearby regions.
In retaliation, Syrian and Russian warplanes have launched extensive airstrikes targeting rebel-held territories in both Aleppo and Idlib. The strikes have been particularly devastating in Idlib, a densely populated rebel stronghold near the Turkish border, home to roughly four million displaced people living in camps and temporary shelters.
In northern Aleppo, Turkish-backed factions, including the SNA, have escalated their offensive against Kurdish forces. The Kurdish People’s Protection Units, a key component of the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, control enclaves around Tal Rifaat. Pro-Turkish fighters have reportedly besieged areas with large Kurdish populations, cutting communications and raising alarms over potential massacres.
New and unverified reports suggest that U.S. forces may have conducted airstrikes against Iranian proxy militias in eastern Syria, specifically targeting positions near al-Mayadin. Allegedly involving both traditional airstrikes and an A-10C “Warthog” strafing run, these strikes are reported to have caused significant casualties. However, these claims remain unconfirmed at this time.
